Opinion

Analysis of Gujarat municipal election results – faith in BJP increased, congress routed

Analysis of Gujarat municipal results.
Facts:
• BJP increased its tally from 390 in 2015 to 483
• In every corporation BJP improved its score
• Congress fell from 175 to a paltry 55

Why Municipal Polls are Crucial:
• People often focus on candidates than the party; this is why more independents win in local polls than national ones
• They truly indicate ground sentiment as they are about localised issues and not national ones like defence and security
Analysis:
• For the BJP the NaMo factor diminishes as we move from national to state to municipal polls and despite this the BJP winning 84% seats shows people connect not just with Narendra Modi but also the state and local leadership; this is the biggest takeaway for the party

• Congress has a strong base in Gujarat — 42% votes in 2017 election — and for it to sink to 55 seats is dramatic because this is an election where its moronic national leadership has least affect on people’s voting pattern — the candidate has more relevance
• Important to note that 17 of Congress’s 25 winning candidates in Ahmedabad are from Muslims populated areas
• AIMIM has snatched a few Muslim-dominated seats from Congress
• The party is not just losing Hindu votes but even Muslim support
• This result shows people have more faith in Narendra Modi than any propagandist
• One should now realise why Modi-Shah didn’t take to armed means to bring down the anarchists on 26 January — they wanted perception to turn against the protestors which it did
• The ruckus around fuel prices purely for political purposes and not with any pure intention to bring people relief has been seen through by people
• Urban population is most exposed to media bias and yet the way it voted shows today’s BJP is immune to misinformation

AAP:
• Before polls PAAS or patidar agitation leaders were angry with Congress for not giving tickets to the ‘right’ people, and so, they fought using AAP’s name
• Few wards in Surat that had been the core of the agitation is where ‘AAP’ won its seats
• Basically people voted for the Patidar candidates and not AAP; they would’ve won even if they’d fought on Congress tickets
• AAP has absolutely no ground presence which is evident by the fact that they attained a zero in all other corporations

• AAP’s ‘success’ is severely limited to one community, parts of one corporation and is specific to a particular situation, the Patidar agitation
• Don’t forget AAP placed 470 candidates almost 95% of which lost
• AAP winning 3-5 seats each in all 6 corporations would’ve been a more resounding result than 27 seats in Surat because the former would’ve indicated a pan-Gujarat impact and not a restricted win that too by airlifting agitation leaders
• AAP has NOT made inroads into Gujarat, it has merely used a previous agitation to register its name in the municipal polls, and this is not how bigger elections are won
• In the 2022 state polls you’ll see AAP resoundingly decimated

Conclusion:
• To win Gujarat you need organisational skills which is an unbeatable strength of the BJP
• Congress, probably post Ahmed Patel, seems completely rudderless — it won’t be surprising if the BJP registers 130+ seats in the 2022 polls

Author
Vinayak Jain

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